Explainer
Why restoring normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz won’t be easy
Why Restoring Normal Traffic Through Hormuz Won’t Be Easy
The US and Iran have committed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important artery for shipping oil and natural gas, which has been largely blocked since the two countries went to war in February. However, returning traffic in the strait to prewar levels — if that day ever comes — presents significant challenges. The prediction market Kalshi assigns a 51% probability that traffic will return to normal before Aug. 1 and a 68% probability before Sept. 1.
